Bitcoin Likely to Retest $100,000 Soon — Here’s the Data Supporting the Next Major Move

Bitcoin may be on the verge of one of the most important retests of this entire market cycle. According to multiple long-term indicators, historical patterns, and momentum signals, there is a high-probability setup pointing toward Bitcoin revisiting $100,000—possibly even exceeding it—within the next 30 to 60 days.

While short-term volatility is always expected, the broader market structure suggests that the recent lows around November will likely hold, paving the way for a sharp medium-term rally toward six figures.

Below is the complete breakdown of why Bitcoin is primed for a major retest of the $100,000 region.

Bitcoin Is Going To $100k, Here’s My Plan

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1. The Monthly MACD Signal That Precedes a Major Bounce

The biggest piece of evidence comes from the monthly MACD, which has just crossed down for the first time in this cycle. Historically, this signal always produces the same short-term pattern:

Every cycle shows two repeatable moves after a monthly MACD downside cross:

1. Bitcoin tests the 21-EMA (yellow)

2. Bitcoin rallies back to retest (and often wick above) the 5-EMA (red)

This has happened:

• 2014–2015

• 2017–2018

• 2019–2020

• 2021–2022

And every single time, Bitcoin bounced to the red 5-EMA within one month of the MACD cross.

Right now:

• Bitcoin has already tested the 21-EMA

• The 5-EMA sits around ~$99,676

• Historically, price wicked above that level in every cycle

This gives us the first high-confidence target:

$99,000–$101,000 within the next 4–8 weeks.

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2. December Timeline Aligns With Historical Cycles

When the MACD cross occurs:

• Bitcoin retests the 5-EMA within one monthly candle

• Meaning: December or early January is the historic window

Overlaying past cycles shows nearly identical timing patterns, adding more conviction that Bitcoin is gearing up for a strong monthly bounce.

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3. Bitcoin Unlikely to Break Below November Lows

Momentum oscillators from the daily to the 5-day and weekly timeframes are all turning upward:

• Daily Stoch RSI → Bullish

• 2-Day → Flipping up

• 3-Day → On track for first upside cross in months

• 5-Day & Weekly → Pivot levels tightening beneath price

Across all these timeframes, the thresholds for downside invalidation sit well below current price—meaning Bitcoin would need a sharp breakdown to violate structure.

The conclusion?

November’s low near $80,500 is likely the cycle’s local bottom.

Short-term dips may occur, but the probability of losing that level is low.

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4. Hidden Bullish Divergence Building on High Timeframes

On the 10-day RSI, Bitcoin is forming hidden bullish divergence relative to the April 2025 and summer 2024 lows. Hidden divergence appears during continuation patterns, not tops.

This indicates:

• Seller exhaustion

• Strengthening underlying trend

• A high probability of a bounce toward major moving averages

And those averages?
They converge around and above $100,000.

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5. The “Moon Cycle” Statistical Edge (Not Magic—Math)

Bitcoin behaves surprisingly consistently around specific lunar cycles—not because of astrology, but because human emotions and trading patterns often sync with time windows.

Backtests over 10+ years show:

• These cycles often produce two-week bullish periods

• The average winning trade during these windows = 13%

• The average losing trade = 8%

Applying those percentages:

• 13% upside → ~$105,000

• 8% downside → ~$85,000

This again places Bitcoin’s most probable range between

$98,000–$105,000 in the next 2–3 weeks.

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6. 5-Day HPDR: Mean Reversion Points Directly to $100K+

Bitcoin recently fell to the lowest historical returns range in 5-day HPDR since 2022, creating a textbook mean-reversion setup.

The key rule of this setup:

Bitcoin will almost always retest the median HPDR before setting new lows.

The HPDR median is currently around:

• $115,000 today

• But trending downward toward $99,000–$100,000

• This aligns perfectly with the MACD/EMA target zone

Meaning:

Bitcoin is extremely likely to test ~$100,000 before ever closing below $80,500.

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7. Fibonacci Retracement Levels Support a Move Toward $100K

Simple Fibonacci analysis from the recent macro swing high shows:

• 0.382 retracement → ~$98,000

• 0.50 retracement → ~$103,450

• 0.618 retracement → ~$108,850 (stretch target)

These levels sit directly above price and form a “confluence cluster” around the same six-figure zone.

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8. Daily EMA Crossover Could Trigger a “Minimum Target” to ~$99,300

A key signal that hasn’t fired yet—but is close—is the daily 5EMA crossing above the 21EMA.

This signal has a high probability of triggering a move to the 55EMA, sitting at:

~$99,300 minimum target

This reinforces the short-term bounce thesis.

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9. What Would Break the Bullish Case? The 108K Threshold

Bitcoin’s macro bearish risk remains, but invalidation is clear:

• A weekly close above $108,000
  = The downtrend breaks
  = The bull market likely resumes

Until then:

• The move to $100K is high probability

• But may be a bull trap before deeper correction

• Still: the bounce comes first

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Final Outlook: Bitcoin Has a High Probability of Reaching $100,000 in December–January

Across momentum indicators, volatility tools, Fibonacci levels, EMA structures, mean-reversion models, and 10+ years of historical MACD behavior, nearly every signal agrees:

✔ Bitcoin is highly likely to retest $99,000–$105,000

✔ This move is expected in December or early January

✔ November lows likely hold

✔ Short-term dips are normal, but structure favors upside

✔ Closing above $108K flips the entire macro trend bullish

This is one of the strongest confluence setups Bitcoin has printed all cycle.