Bitcoin Breaks Below the 50-Week Moving Average: What It Means, Why It Happened, and the Trading Plan Moving Forward

Bitcoin has just done something the entire crypto world hoped it wouldn’t do:
it confirmed a weekly close below the 50-week simple moving average — a line historically known as the “bull vs. bear cycle divider.”

For many analysts, that single close signals the end of the bull cycle. But as always with Bitcoin, the story is far more complex.

And according to several macro indicators, political shifts, liquidity trends, and historical parallels, this cycle may not be following the familiar 4-year script at all.

In this extended analysis, we break down:

• Why Bitcoin broke below the 50-week SMA

• What the charts and liquidity signals actually say

• Whether Bitcoin is entering a structural bear market

• What the macro environment (Fed, shutdown, global liquidity) is pointing toward

• Why 2026 may be the biggest liquidity injection in a decade

• And — most important — the trading plan moving forward

Let’s dive in.

Crypto Bear Market Confirmed? (What Happens Next)

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1. The “Mustachio” Indicator and the Return of Altcoin Extremes (Half Serious, Half Meme)

Before we get serious, a quick nod to crypto culture.

Every time the “mustachio” pattern returns — a tongue-in-cheek meme indicator comparing altcoin movements to a giant curved mustache — altcoins have historically gone parabolic vs. Bitcoin:

• October 2021

• November 2024

• And now November 2025

Has it literally never failed?
Technically, yes. But let’s set the memes aside and focus on what matters:

Something structural just shifted in the market, and it demands real attention.

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2. The Bearish Trigger: Bitcoin Falls Below the 50-Week Moving Average

Bitcoin’s close under the 50-week SMA at ~102,000 was the breaking point.

Normally, in prior cycles, BTC would dip below it briefly only to reclaim it a week or two later.
This time?

It plunged straight through it.

The structure now resembles:

• 2019 post-fakeout

• 2015’s mid-cycle breakdown

• The end-of-cycle rollovers of previous bear markets

This is the first legitimate technical sign that the bull trend may be over.

But why? Let’s review the chain reaction that brought us here.

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3. What Triggered the Breakdown: The Chain of Events

A) The Swing Failure Pattern (SFP)

Bitcoin briefly exceeded its prior high (107k) — then immediately collapsed below it.
Equal liquidity grab → reversal → panic.

B) The “Astrological Top” Date

A Reddit post in 2023 predicted the exact top of this cycle down to the day.
It shouldn’t matter… but somehow, it lined up perfectly.

C) The Historic Liquidation Event (October 10th)

One of the largest liquidation cascades in crypto history obliterated altcoins and destabilized the entire market.

D) The Government Shutdown + Powell’s Hawkish Message

Markets expected bullish ignorance (“no data = no rate hikes”).
Then Powell said: no more cuts during the shutdown.

This instantly flipped sentiment.

Instead of “ignorance is bliss,” it became:

“We need data immediately or liquidity dies.”

And liquidity did die.

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4. The Real Culprit: Liquidity Has Been Drying Up Since July

Two major forces choked the markets:

1. The Treasury General Account (TGA)

The TGA rising = money being removed from the economy.
It has been rising since July → drying liquidity.

2. The Fed’s Shrinking Balance Sheet

QT (Quantitative Tightening) has been running since 2021, continuously removing liquidity.

Both forces combined =
extreme macro dryness for equities, crypto, and risk assets.

But here’s where the story turns.

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5. Liquidity Is About to Reverse — And For the First Time, We Know When

1. The Fed pauses QT on December 1st

For the first time in years, the “vacuum cleaner” stops sucking liquidity out.

2. Government spending must resume in early 2026

TGA rebuild complete → checks and balance sheets reopen.

3. Trump’s new “Tariff Dividend” stimulus for Americans (mid-2026)

A $2,000 dividend — timed perfectly before the 2026 midterms.

This matters.

Because for the first time, we know the plan.

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6. The Market Is Not Just About Bitcoin — This Is Election Engineering

Everything happening now is aligned with one purpose:

Win the 2026 midterms.

That requires:

• a strong economy

• voter satisfaction

• rising markets

• improving risk assets

Which means liquidity must return — heavily — before Q3 2026.

The administration needs:

• rising markets

• rising sentiment

• lower inflation

• voters feeling wealthier

This timing gives us a near-perfect window into the next macro phase.

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7. So Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? The Answer: It’s Complicated

Let’s break it down.

Bearish Evidence

• Weekly close under the 50-week SMA

• Liquidity dryness from shutdown + TGA + QT

• Altcoin market obliterated

• Social interest in crypto now at 2016 levels

• No euphoric top (rare in a true cycle peak)

Bullish Evidence

• QT ending

• Massive global stimulus coming

• U.S., Japan, China all preparing liquidity waves

• Trump administration timing economic rescue for midterms

• Global M2 money supply recovering

• Bitcoin institutionalization providing a “downside cushion”

• No blow-off top → no blow-off bear market

This is why comparing 2025 to 2017/2021 doesn’t work.

A better comparison?

Late 2019

• No euphoric top

• Liquidity was weak

• Bitcoin topped early

• Altcoins got crushed

• Market found a structural bottom

• Liquidity wave followed

We may be entering another version of that.

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8. The Trading Plan (Actionable & Simple)

Step 1: Expect a bounce toward $99k–$100k

Markets don’t move in straight lines.
This drop was overextended. A relief rally is likely.

Step 2: If BTC reclaims $107k → Bullish scenario resumes

107k is the “line in the sand.”

Above it = new highs possible.
Below it = caution.

Step 3: If BTC fails at $100k → Prepare for deeper pullback

Downside target: $74k–$80k
This corresponds to:

• prior major support

• 2019-style retracement

• liquidity reset zone

Step 4: Keep cash ready

If a deflationary shock continues, you want dry powder.

Step 5: Altcoins become a screaming buy only after BTC strength returns

Specifically AFTER:

• BTC > $100k

• BTC > $107k

• Global liquidity inflects upward

• Stimulus checks confirmed

That’s when real alt season can ignite.

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9. Social Interest Is at 2016 Levels — And That’s Bullish Long-Term

Crypto narrative energy is dead.
Retail interest is at decade-lows.

Similar lows occurred:

• before the 2017 mania

• before the 2021 mania

Every cycle begins in silence.
This is silence.

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10. Conclusion: The Cycle Isn’t Dead — It’s Resetting Before a Massive Liquidity Wave

Bitcoin breaking below the 50-week SMA is serious — but not fatal.

We are in a rare, complex phase where:

• The macro is shifting

• Liquidity is bottoming

• Altcoins are bleeding out

• Retail is absent

• Institutions dominate

• Political timing is driving decisions

But by mid-2026, the liquidity cannon will fire.
Global governments are aligned.
Stimulus is incoming.
QT is ending.
QE is on the table.
Rate cuts are inevitable.

Short-term: volatility, confusion, pain.
Medium-term: recovery.
Long-term: explosive liquidity-driven upside.

The key now is positioning.

Stay calm.
Stay focused.
Stay strategic.
And don’t lose sight of the broader liquidity wave forming beneath the surface.